In a major boost to Vodafone Idea’s revival hopes, the telecom company’s shares surged over 10% on Monday after the Supreme Court allowed the Indian government to reassess its adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues. The verdict marks a potential turning point for the debt-laden operator, lifting investor sentiment and pushing the stock to its highest level since September 2024.
Supreme Court’s Relief Sparks Investor Optimism
The Supreme Court’s decision comes in response to Vodafone Idea’s petition challenging the Department of Telecommunications’ (DoT) demand for an additional ₹9,450 crore in AGR dues.
By permitting the government to revisit the dues calculation, the apex court effectively opened the door for potential relief or restructuring of payments — a move that could significantly reduce the financial strain on the company.
The Indian government, which now holds nearly 49% equity in Vodafone Idea following a debt-to-equity swap earlier this year, is expected to evaluate how much of the dues could be deferred, waived, or converted into additional equity.
“This signals stronger policy intent and lowers the bankruptcy risk that once loomed large over the telecom major,” said Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVAsset PMS.
Market Reaction: Stock Hits New 13-Month High
Following the verdict, Vodafone Idea’s share price rallied to ₹10.5, marking its strongest level since September 2024. Trading volumes spiked sharply as investors cheered the possibility of reduced liabilities.
Analysts said the Supreme Court’s nod to reconsider dues brought much-needed relief to a company struggling under a ₹76,000 crore debt burden and consistent subscriber losses.
However, experts also cautioned against over-enthusiasm, noting that details of the government’s reassessment process are yet to emerge.
“The fine print is crucial — until we know how much relief Vodafone Idea gets, the rally could be short-lived,” Dasani added.
Analysts Advise Caution Despite Relief
While the court’s decision improves sentiment, most analysts believe the stock still faces long-term structural challenges.
According to Kranthi Bathini, Director at Wealthmills Securities, “The SC order is definitely a booster for Vodafone Idea shareholders, but the company continues to lose market share and struggles to grow its ARPU (Average Revenue Per User). It’s not out of the woods yet.”
TRAI’s August 2025 data showed Vodafone Idea lost 3.09 lakh mobile users, reflecting persistent operational weaknesses.
Experts suggest that only investors with high risk tolerance should consider short-term trading opportunities, as the stock remains event-driven and highly volatile.
Investment Outlook: Wait for Fundamentals to Improve
Vodafone Idea’s future trajectory hinges on several critical factors — including fresh capital infusion, ARPU recovery, and subscriber retention.
Market experts advise that conservative investors should adopt a “wait-and-watch” approach until there is visible improvement in the company’s balance sheet and operational performance.
“This ruling is a confidence booster, but it doesn’t fix the fundamentals overnight,” Dasani noted. “True revival will depend on how effectively the government and promoters handle the next phase of debt restructuring and capital raising.”
For traders, the near-term outlook remains positive on dips, but sustained gains will likely depend on concrete news around dues restructuring and fundraising initiatives.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational and educational purposes only. Market investments carry risk. The views expressed are those of market analysts and do not constitute financial advice. Investors are advised to consult certified professionals before making investment decisions.